Garry oak extent, climate suitability and conservation goals As in the past, current and future climate change will no doubt impact the structure of, and

processes LY2606368 purchase affecting, Garry oak ecosystems throughout I-BET151 mw western North America. In addition to understanding the past and current stressors affecting Garry oak ecosystems, we need to understand how these species and ecosystems will adapt under different climate scenarios throughout their range. If long-term biodiversity conservation goals in the context of climate change adaptation are to be achieved, the spatial and temporal connectivity of landscapes will be essential for ecosystem migration. Understanding how Garry oak responds to future climate scenarios at scales relevant to land managers is an important planning tool for conservation managers providing the opportunity to identify

temporally www.selleckchem.com/products/Gefitinib.html connected migration corridors (areas where climate remains continuously suitable over time), as well as additional areas that are expected to be necessary to maintain Garry oak populations over the next century. Climate Change scenarios (Bachelet et al. 2011) and a down-scaled bioclimatic envelope model (Pellatt et al. 2012) have been used to identify areas projected to maintain climatic suitability over time. Pellatt et al. (2012) generated scenarios that examine temporally connected areas that persist throughout the twenty-first century for Garry oak, and the extent of overlap between these temporally connected regions and existing protected areas. Garry oak is used as a representative

Selleck AZD9291 species for Garry oak ecosystems as its range is well-known and overall is limited by climate. The results of the bioclimatic envelope modelling indicate climatically suitable Garry oak habitat is projected to increase marginally, mostly in the United States of America, but in order for adaptation and migration to occur there is a need to secure manageable, connected landscapes (Nantal et al. 2014). At present models indicate that only 6.6 to 7.3 % will remain continuously suitable (temporally connected) in protected landscapes between 2010 and 2099 (Fig. 6; based on CGCM2-A2 model-scenario) highlighting the need for coordinated conservation efforts on public and private lands. Of particular interest to conservation ecologists, is that even though there is an expansion of climatically suitable Garry oak habitat to the east of the Cascade Mountains (Washington and Oregon), very little expansion is expected to occur northward in Canada (Pellatt et al. 2012). Fig. 6 Climatically suitable habitat for Garry oak using CGCM2 scenario A2 (temporally connected) between 2010 and 2099. Green represents the location of protected areas. Light blue represents temporally connected Garry oak habitat.